Poll: Cubin “slap” remark worth negative 5%

Be nice to the handicapped, or your supporters will make this point:

The Democratic candidate for the only House seat in the reddest of states – Vice President Dick Cheney’s Wyoming – is drawing even with GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin after a wheelchair-bound third-party candidate accused her of threatening to slap him.

Cubin, who is seeking a seventh term, leads Democrat Gary Trauner 44 percent to 40.4 percent, according to a new poll by the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle.

Five percent said they would vote for the allegedly threatened Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin.

This is something to keep in mind the next time a major party makes some snide comment to one of our candidates, have them make a stink about it to the media… the proof is in the poll.

34 Comments
  1. Good! Hopefully this means Rankin can be kingmaker, which will be another sign of LP political success this cycle. Post-election, HQ should publish a list of the number of races in which the LP candidate won more than the margin of difference between the two candidates, as well as the number of races where we got over 5% or 10% of the vote – a telling sign that the party is becoming a real force to be reckoned with in US politics. Then they need to promote it everywhere, so the media and the major parties very clearly sees how our role in the political spectrum is growing. This may at least force the major parties to shift in our direction, especially with the probable Congressional gridlock about to emerge.

    My fingers are crossed that this will be a very successful season for the LP – maybe even a few victories are possible. Now let’s just hope “Unnamed Write-In Candidate” withdraws and endorses Smither at the last minute, and Bell and the Vermont fusion candidates win.

  2. Also, hopefully it will make the difference between the Democrat and Republican, helping to switch control of the Congress and bringing divided government and Congressional investigations of the Bush gang next year.

  3. “Now let’s just hope “Unnamed Write-In Candidate” withdraws and endorses Smither at the last minute”

    That would be nice, but I doubt it now after the release of this Zogby poll:

    Coverage of Zogby poll

    I don’t know what to make of all the polls in this race. Wasn’t the LP conducting a poll via BallotBase for TX CD22? Anyone know the results?

  4. Definitely. I’ll be very interested to see if a Democratic congress with a Republican executive will lean libertarian (as it sort of did during Clinton) or will bring out the more authoritarian tendencies. I’m hoping the Dems check all Bush’s spending and authoritarian laws and foreign policy while Bush vetoes Democratic tax increases, minimum wage increases and socialized healthcare schemes. A Democratic control shift will hopefully make a big difference in harnessing government abuses.

    The only problem will be if the Dems cement enough control to keep the houses and win the Presidency in ’08. A President like Barack Obama would not be the worst thing in the world for libertarians (I mean, he’s pretty much left center, but certainly not authoritarian – Hillary would be much worse). Such a centrist candidate would undoubtedly unite the country behind him, but with a Democratic controlled Congress, say bye bye to any pretense of limited government.

  5. I think one of the biggest ways libertarians could help out in cd-22 is by volunteering as poll workers. Apparently texas has a history of vote fraud dating back to LBJ and even further. Probably a little bit of inducement to stay honest would help.

  6. I wonder if Mr. Winger has any data on what happens to ease of ballot status in states where Libertarians get the balance of power? One reaction, of course, is to move to co-opt the major libertarian issues. The other is to make it even harder to get a third party candidate on the ballot.
    In states where it is just too hard, let’s start entering the major parties’ primaries.

  7. Nick # 4

    Yep, that’s the way I see it.

    A Clinton or a Bush with their own party in control of Congress is the worst possible scenario.

    Divided government good!

    Zogby poll: Dunno what’s up with that.

    4%? That would be decent in a typical 3-way race, but this isn’t exactly a typical race.

  8. I wonder if Mr. Winger has any data on what happens to ease of ballot status in states where Libertarians get the balance of power? One reaction, of course, is to move to co-opt the major libertarian issues. The other is to make it even harder to get a third party candidate on the ballot. In states where it is just too hard, let’s start entering the major parties’ primaries.

    This is ridiculous. If we are going to achieve political success, we are going to have to get past the point where ballot access is even a topic of discussion. Permanent ballot status in all 50 states should be our baseline.

    And yes, I’m gonna get off my ass and help make it happen, instead of just griping about it on HoT.

  9. We’re a long, long way from having such a baseline.

    It’s a lot more difficult than most people realize until they try it themselves.

  10. Regarding Ballot Access.

    A coalition of independent voters is forming in Georgia to approach the new legislature to demand ballot access laws be brought more in line with surrounding states. Stay Tuned after the election for more news.

  11. Don’t try to bring them in line with Alabama.

    Your local race access is even worse, but statewide access and retention is a lot harder in Alabama.

  12. It’s been rare for state legislatures to make ballot access worse, during the past 10 years. The LP was the balance of power in a US Senate race in Nevada in 1998, in Washington in 2000, and South Dakota in 2002. None of those states made things worse, as a result. This year we may be the balance of power in US Senate races in Arizona (conceivably), Missouri (fairly likely), Montana (fairly likely), Nevada (unlikely but possible), New Jersey (unlikely but possible), Washington (unlikely but possible).

  13. What I really wanna know about is why there’s such a HUGE disparity between the Libertarian poll done on Bob Smither and the poll just done by and published by that Houston T.V. station. Something doesn’t smell right. How can he go from 25% down to 4% support in less than two weeks?

    Shelley “Count Suckula Gibbs” must be up to something. Or are we simply deluded?

  14. Brad- I was just elected as Legislative Chair for the LP of Illinois in September and Illinois has archaic ballot access laws I’m going to try to get our ballot access lowered. E-mail me about what goes on in Georgia and maybe we can co-opt between the states.

    R.E.Lee- E-mail me (I’m a contributing editor here at HOT) and I can tell you my plan here in Illinois if the above is not achieveable.

  15. Re: #14

    Did anyone else read that Bush came to the district and stumped for “Unnamed Write-In Candidate”? I saw it in Time. Maybe that’s the deathknell for Smither – while in most districts, Bush’s appearance might kill a Republican candidate on the brink of losing re-election, in this district maybe it only raised the candidate’s profile. Rats.

  16. Mr. Winger’s report is encouraging. Just in case, the LP should be prepared to fight tougher ballot access laws by getting sympathy from the major party that appears to benefit from LP candidates in their particular state.

  17. What I really wanna know about is why there’s such a HUGE disparity between the Libertarian poll done on Bob Smither and the poll just done by and published by that Houston T.V. station. Something doesn’t smell right. How can he go from 25% down to 4% support in less than two weeks?

    Some of it may have had to do with poll methodology, but a large part might be all the money and campaigning that has taken place down there.

  18. Nick, what you are going to see is the liberal media completely ignoring Libertarian candidates nationwide on election night, even Bob Smither. My guess is that they will report even lopsided results showing only the R and D. For instance, Nick Lampson 47%, Shelly Sekula-Gibbs 22%.

    Watch CNN and the Big 3 do this on election night. Maybe Fox will be more fair? But be prepared for a complete media blackout of Libertarians on Nov. 7/8.

  19. Nick; “On the brink of losing re-election” …

    Let’s not forget what we’re talking about: Tom DeLay’s former district. Tom took himself off of the ballot.

    There’s no incumbent; no re-election. Mr. Bush would try to hornswaggle people further… but Sekula-Gibbs has no chance of election, in my mind.

  20. Until Libertarians wake-up and realize that liberals, specifically the liberal media are our enemy, we will never, ever make any progress as a movement.

    It’s quite simple math. Liberals wish to paint Republicans as “extremist government cutters” who want to take away medicare, and throw ole Granny out on the street without here SS check.

    They can’t do that with Libertarians around. As soon as a Libertarian gets in a debate and says, “yeah, we ought to slash government programs…” it immediately puts the Republican in the middle. They become Moderate, almost reasonable.

    The only solution is for Libertarians to savagely attack Liberals and the Liberal media. Libertarians need to go for the jugular against all Democrats in debates, media and other forums.

    Attacking Republicans equally as Democrats only serves the purpose of our enemies; the liberals and the liberal media.

    Until my bretheren Libertarian realize this we are all doomed!

  21. A Democrat Congress in 2006 and a Dem Congress and President in 2008, will be the death knell for Libertarians.

    I would predict that they will begin to round us all up and send us to concentration camps. Democrats, 95% of them, really are National Socialists. And Burak Obama is the worst of them all. He has a 100% ADA rating, and a near 0% ACU rating. He’s about the worst Authoritarian you could possibly find. Just because he seems like a nice guy, cannot masque his reprehensible voting record, about worst in the Senate.

    I’d support Hillary Clinton over Fascist Obama. At least she’d just throw us Libertarians in concentration camps, like the Japs in the 1940s. Obama would throw us in the camps, and then an hour later in the gas chambers.

  22. Eric has it exactly backwards as usual.

    Until Libertarians wake-up and realize that reichwingers are our enemy, we will never, ever make any progress as a movement.

    It’s quite simple math. Reich wingers wish to paint Democrats as “cut and runners” who want to cut the military, and are soft on drugs.

    They can’t do that with Libertarians around. As soon as a Libertarian gets in a debate and says, “yeah, we ought to bring all the troops home now and legalize drugs” it immediately puts the Democrat in the middle. They become Moderate, almost reasonable.

    The only solution is for Libertarians to savagely attack Reich wing Republicans. Libertarians need to go for the jugular against all Rapepubliccons in debates, media and other forums.

    Attacking Republicans equally as Democrats only serves the purpose of our enemies; the reich wing Bush gang fascists.

    Until my bretheren Libertarian realize this we are all doomed!

  23. A Democrat Congress in 2006 and a Dem Congress and President in 2008, will be the great for Libertarians.

    http://select.nytimes.com/2006/10/31/opinion/31tierney.html

    I would predict that Bush will begin to round us all up and send us to concentration camps. NSGOP, 95% of them, really are National Socialists.

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/red-state-fascism.html

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/margolis/margolis46.html

    King George IV Dubai-ya wouldn’t just throw us Libertarians in concentration camps, like the Japs in the 1940s. W for Warmonger would throw us in the camps, and then an hour later in the gas chambers.

    He’s already passed the Enabling act (Military Commissions Act) which allows him to classify anyone including US citizens as materially aiding terrorism. His gang have repeatedly said that opposing him or his wars IS materially aiding terrorism. Neal Boortz approves.

    And Halliburton has already built the camps!

  24. Paulie:

    The problem with your logic is that the Democratic Party *aren’t* ‘cut-and-runners’. They LIKE the wars of empire. I’m all for savaging the Republicans over the war, but it’s disingenious to pretend the Democrats aren’t just as guilty.

    If you keep an ear to the left (as I try to do), you’ll relaise that -real- leftists (‘progressives’) are as disgusted with the warmongering of the DP as real isolationist righties are of the GOP.

    We should always and everywhere point out how evil -statism- – in its left-manifestation or its right-manifestation, is.

  25. Susan,

    You’re absolutely right. I was a leftist and gave up on the Democrats in 1992 when they picked DLC centrist, pro-drug war, corporate whore Bill Clinton over my guy (Jerry Brown). I might have gone Green had they been on the ballot then, but I was resolved to vote for a candidate who opposed the drug war. Over time I came to see how libertarian means can achieve leftist goals.

    Additionally, you should point out to Eric that Republicans have sold out their smaller government constituency just as much as Democrats have sold out their peace and civil liberties voters. Bush has increased federal spending faster than Democrats Clinton, Carter, LBJ, Kennedy and Truman. And you can’t blame it on Congress, Republicans have controlled that too. They’re making the Democrats seem like a moderate smaller government party!

  26. “it immediately puts the Republican in the middle. They become Moderate, almost reasonable.”

    I think this logic explains a lot about why Eric is so fond of libertarians. I don’t even need to criticize it.

  27. Nick (#4) and Paulie (#8) seem to be operating on the premise that there’s actually a DIFFERENCE between Republicrats and Demopublicans. There’s not.

    When was the last time a prominent Dem called for legalization of drugs? (Ok, so there was NM Gov Gary Johnson but that was..no wait! uh, never mind). When was the last time a prominent Rep screamed against the minimum wage?

    Me neither.

    Who cares who controls which branch of government, unless it’s a Libertarian? Until we own up to the fact that all Demopublicrats are the same, we can’t even begin to see the problem, let alone the solution.

  28. “When was the last time a prominent Dem called for legalization of drugs? (Ok, so there was NM Gov Gary Johnson”

    Before Dondero makes the point: Gary Johnson is a Republican, though not quite nationally prominent outside of New Mexico and Libertarian circles.

    But your point is still valid.

  29. Off the top of my head,
    Baltimore Mayor Kurt Schmoke.

    But that’s not the issue. We all know that most differences between Republowcrats and Demipublicans are mostly cosmetic.

    However, much like the Blue and Green parties in ancient Rome, they serve different constituencies which are fighting to bring home the bacon. The amount of bacon is obscenely large, but not unlimited; therefore, it meets the technical economic definition of “scarce resource”.

    When different parties control different branches of government they spend more time bickering over who gets the goodies, which leaves less time to take away more of our freedoms.

    Furthermore, no matter how similar they are from our perspective, they love to exaggerate their differences for public consumption. Therefore it’s likely that with the Blue gang in charge of Congross, there will be investigations of the war criminal Bush gang and perhaps an impeachment.

    That would be good.

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