Wishful Thinking: Bush Disapproval = Dem Wins

blue state wishful thinkingA set of maps with a blue-washing of states to represent a recent SurveyUSA polling of Americans who disapprove of Bush’s job performance was posted at DailyKos today and has been picked up by several Democrat outlets.
Yet one commenter actually had some insight to the reality of what the polls represent:

First, there’s no doubt that the Republicans party is bleeding out of its center, but I wonder how much of it is bleeding out to the right (or to the northeast and southeast, for the political compass junkies). I imagine many hardcore libertarians are starting to take the third party option much more seriously.
Secondly, many expected that there had been bleeding from the fundamentalist wing over the Miers nomination, and that Alito would bring some of Bush’s number back up, but so far, that doesn’t seem to the case. Either that assumption about poll numbers was wrong, or the fundies are waiting to see if Bush can deliver an Alito nomination, or I guess some of them could also be taking the third party option more seriously, and he’ll have trouble winning them back.
Either way, people moving to third parties on the right isn’t the formula for Democratic success, but it surely helps them a great deal when also picking up moderates (hopefully in droves).

The fact is, libertarian publicity seem to be doing quite well in the wake of Bush’s low approval ratings (along with low support for Democrats or Republicans in general) and a weak Democrat rhetoric (which can often be boiled down to “no, you suck more”).
As the saying goes: don’t count your chickens until they hatch. Democrats shouldn’t assume just because there’s discontent with Republicans that there’s going to be a shift back to voting for them. If you’ll pardon the pun, the failed policies of both major parties may finally come home to roost.