When the Islamic State took Mosul in June of last year, shock was the appropriate response. If you hadn’t been following the situation they really did seem to come out of nowhere. Unfortunately, the people who were supposed to be following the situation were just as shocked. The United States government, having spent 11 years as the most powerful force in the region, and having spent billions of dollars of our money to gather intelligence, missed this development just as completely as the general public did.
The Islamic State’s marketing prowess accomplished something that few people thought was possible. It focused the world’s attention on the on-going crisis in Iraq and Syria. The problems of the region, and the plausible solution (in Iraq at least) are now clear to anybody who has an internet connection and basic literacy. This apparently does not include the US “Intelligence” community or the policy planners at the US government. Their response to the threat of the Islamic State is perfectly contradictory. It’s dumb enough to almost make me believe in conspiracy theories.
The Islamic State’s expansion in Iraq was made possible by the oppression of Iraq’s Sunni minority by the Shia dominated Iraqi government. The US response has been to use billions more dollars and a comprehensive bombing campaign, to support that Shia government. The fall of further Sunni dominated cities was the easiest thing in the world to predict.
Yesterday, Ramadi, a predominantly Sunni city, fell to the Islamic State. Any “expert” professing to be surprised by this is either no expert, or a liar.
I make videos on politics for a living, but I don’t see the point of making any further ones to respond to this completely predictable development. Two videos that I made months ago do a decent enough job explaining the problem and laying out the solution.
1. The Problem:
This video lays out the simple reasons why US bombing is exactly what the Islamic State wants.
2. The Solution:
Iraq is no longer a country. The sooner we acknowledge that fact the sooner we can bring this issue to a close. If we continue on our current path nothing will improve. A new Sunni state in Iraq will quickly throw off the Islamic State, leaving it as a much less powerful player in the Syrian civil war. This video lays out why Iraq is dead.
The Fall of Mosul was Shocking. The Fall of Ramadi is just frustrating. I apologize if the tone of this blog post is rude, but the US government’s continued refusal to accept basic reality makes me deeply angry.
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