Tag Archives: favorability polls

One in five clueless about election 2012

From an August 22-26 CBS election poll:

As many as 45 percent of registered now say they are paying a lot of attention, including slightly more Republicans (47 percent) than Democrats (42 percent). In April, 43 percent were paying a lot of attention. In August of 2008, 51 percent said they were paying a lot of attention.

Another 34 percent of voters say they are paying some attention, while 20 percent are paying little to no attention.

[...]There is some room for movement in the race – but not much. About four in five voters say they have made up their minds which candidate to support, but for about one in 10 the race is not yet over, as they say it’s too early and their minds could still change. Similar percentages of Obama and Romney voters could change their minds.

The conventions will undoubtedly offer reviews, from both sides, of the Obama presidency thus far. A slight majority of voters says that the Obama presidency has brought more disappointment (55 percent) than satisfaction (45 percent).

Democrats are satisfied, but more apt to be just somewhat satisfied (53 percent) than very satisfied (29 percent). Another 18 percent of Democrats are disappointed. Most independents (58 percent) are disappointed. Republicans, perhaps unsurprisingly, are very much so.

It’s safe to say the democrats and republicans have done their part to disenfranchise Americans with extreme ballot restrictions measures and psychological barrages of hate. Is it any surprise that one in five are taking refuge in complete political solitude (and thus, powerlessness).

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Republicans turning bearish on Romney

Politico hears the murmers in the Beltway, “under the table, there is pervasive pessimism among Republicans about Romney’s prospects this fall. It’s apparent in rampant discussions about which Republicans will run in 2016 – talk that obviously presupposes a loss in November – and it’s downright glaring in private conversations with GOP officials on Capitol Hill and in consulting shops across Washington.”

“And the skepticism about Romney isn’t just a Beltway phenomenon. Rank-and-file Republican voters are also uncertain he can win, though it’s the chattering class that is most bearish.”

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight at the NYT reports on the Romney vs Obama contest angle only. They made a handy graph showing Romney’s favorability numbers stacked up (37% unfavorable over 26% favorable) against other campaigns, with even mid-election losers John Kerry, George Bush, Sr. and Bob Dole top him in favorability during the same January-June polling period.

That spells trouble for Romney, “these early-stage favorability ratings have had a mixed track record as a predictor of election outcomes. The candidate with the better net-favorable rating in the early-going won the election in 1976, 1980, 1984, 1996, and 2008. But Mr. Clinton won the election in 1992, despite making a poor first impression on voters. On the flip side, Michael Dukakis had very promising favorability numbers early in the 1988 cycle, but they deteriorated over the course of the election cycle and he took a clear defeat. (I’m not sure where you’d classify the 2000 election because of the split between the popular vote and the Electoral College, or 2004 since George W. Bush and John Kerry had essentially the same net favorability rating in the early going.)”

As for Ron Paul favorability ratings, Talking Points Memo shows him barely holding his own against Romney in their tracking of national favorability (even tossing out the PPP pollsters).

DISCLAIMER: polls are for entertainment purposes only, here and everywhere else.

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