It may be a little early for the prediction game, but the tea leaves (no pun intended) on 2014 are starting to look pretty good for the GOP.
First it’s next to impossible for the Democrats and their leader, President Barack Obama, to separate themselves from Obama’s signature legislation, commonly known as Obamacare.
With Obamacare the polling approval numbers are bleak. A majority (50%) view it as a disaster, wanting a full repeal — with that same Rasmussen Poll showing a staggering 81% Favor Repealing or Changing the Health Care Law.
These are not some outlier pollsters either.
Over at Real Clear Politics the RCP average of all the polls shows that a full 19% more people disapproving of the Health Care Law over approving of it.
Second, these numbers are likely to get much worse before the 2014 mid-term elections.
So far the cancellations have been in the individual market, not effecting the employer market. That will change in 2014 as the one year delay in the employer mandate expires.
This is key because the Obama administrations defense of the private market cancellations thus far have been to claim it’s only a small percentage of the overall market, even if we’re still talking about 15 million American’s losing their Health insurance.
Many of the people on the employer market facing these cancellations are not likely to get renewed employer based coverage either, as another Forbes report shows that on average Obama approved plans are 99% more expensive for men, and 62% more expensive for women.
The New York Times reports that currently the employer’s contribution to family health coverage is now averaging $11,429 a year, pre-Obamacare mandates, these mandates will of course lead to similar spikes in the cost of this coverage in the coming year.
With these coming spikes in cost, and the Obamacare penalty being only $2,000 per employee, it’s easy to see many employers taking the economically advantageous rout of shifting their employee’s over to the exchanges. Employees who will now face the same high costs, high stress, troubles the individual market people are struggling through now — but right before they step into the booths for the 2014 mid-terms.
Still not convinced? Here is a “wave” of recent headlines all spelling potential election doom for the Democrats.
From Washington Post:
5.5 million. That is how many people the administration needs to sign up in just 23 days because Obamacare drove them out of their health-care plans.
50 million. That is how many Americans will be surprised to find their employer-based health plans dropped or substantially changed next year because of Obamacare
53. That is the percentage of Americans who now say that President Obama is not “honest or trustworthy.”
12. That is the number of Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2014 who are complicit in Obama’s lie. They are on record (and on YouTube) making the same false promise.
From National Journal — “Senate Race Rankings: Democrats on Defense”:
Thirteen of the 15 seats most likely to switch are Democratic-held.
Combined with a favorable map, Republican momentum has put control of the Senate firmly in play. In fact, the 7 seats most likely to switch parties in our latest Hotline Senate Rankings are only Democratic-held. If Republicans flip 6 of the 7 — without losing any of their own vulnerable seats — they would control the Senate in 2015.
Overall, 13 of the 15 most vulnerable seats are held by Democrats. Just two GOP-held seats are even somewhat in danger of flipping parties: Georgia, where Republicans could nominate a controversial candidate like Rep. Paul Broun, and Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t popular and faces well-funded primary and general-election challengers.
It gets worse.
Back to the Washington Post — “Is another Republican wave building?“:
President Obama’s poll numbers are at record lows. The health care law that serves as the cornerstone of his domestic policy legacy is even more unpopular. And there are few chances to change the conversation among a skeptical public that isn’t happy with Washington.
Sound familiar? It should: The national political climate today is starting to resemble 2010, when Republicans won control of the House of Representatives by riding a wave of voter anger.
So combining all this together: Obama’s dismal approval ratings; the even worse ratings of Obamacare; The fact tens of millions of American’s will be losing their health care coverage next year, while simultaneously facing higher costs to continue to have coverage; The extremely favorable map for the GOP with 13 potential Democrat seats in danger (compared to only 2 GOP seats).
Are we looking at a potential wave election for the GOP?
Will the Senate change hands?
Can the GOP screw this up?